We Predict That a Prediction Market Policy is In Your Future: 3 Steps to Crafting an Effective Policy
Odds are good that someone in your workplace has money riding on the next interest rate decision, election outcome, or season finale of a reality show – and your existing workplace policies might not cover this new trend . Online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming, with participants spending nearly $5 billion per week and the total annual market estimated to rise to over $1 trillion annually by 2030. But this explosive growth is a new compliance risk for employers, as the line between an informed guess and insider trading can blur fast when employees have access to information the rest of the market doesn’t. What do you need to know about this latest trend, and what three steps should you take to craft an effective workplace policy? What are Prediction Markets? Prediction markets are generally online markets in which participants buy and sell “contracts” tied to some future event . The two most popular sites are Kalshi and Polymarket, but many others exist and ma...